Worker shortage barrier to nuclear ambitions

Source : Manufacturers’ Monthly: Worker shortage barrier to nuclear ambitions https://www.manmonthly.com.au/worker-shortage-barrier-to-nuclear-ambitions

August 2024 • Comment from Geoff Crittenden, CEO, Weld Australia

Federal opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposed nuclear reactor sites are former or current coal plants that possess the necessary technical attributes, including transmission infrastructure, cooling water capacity, and – apparently – the skilled workforce required.

Nuclear technology has been in existence for decades, supplying a large amount of zero-emission power to a number of developed countries across Europe and North America. However, the majority of these nuclear power plants were built in the 1970s and 1980s, and have largely been abandoned in favour of other power supply options.

Last year, just five new nuclear reactors were opened, and the same number were closed, according to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report. This trend is on par with the past two decades, which has seen 102 reactors opening globally while 104 have shut down. Out of the 416 active nuclear reactors, the average age is 32 years. While the Coalition claims its reactors will operate for 80 to 100 years, the world has yet to see a 60-year-old nuclear reactor.

What’s more, there is a critical shortage of welders needed for the nuclear power plant program. This deficiency in highly skilled tradespeople poses a threat to the successful execution of this national energy initiative.

High costs to build

The reason why the nuclear renaissance of the 2000s never eventuated has less to do with public opposition and fears around nuclear meltdowns, than it does with cost. Nuclear power plants are expensive to construct, operate, and maintain: many nuclear programs of the 1970s and 1980s severely underestimated these costs. The subsequent budget blowouts meant that almost no new nuclear power plants were built in Europe and North America until the late 2000s.

An Oxford Professor’s study of 16,000 major construction projects found that nuclear reactors have the third-highest rate of budget and time blowouts. One of the two project types that ranked above nuclear power plants is radioactive waste repositories, which Australia would also need to build to support the Coalition’s proposed nuclear program.

The CSIRO estimates that each 1-gigawatt nuclear plant could cost well over $8 billion, and warns that the real-world costs may double in a country that has never built a nuclear reactor before, given the high start-up costs. The 15-to-20-year timeline given by the CSIRO for building each plant is contrary to the Coalition’s plans for full operationality before 2040.

In the United States, some nuclear projects have even been abandoned prior to completion due to billions of dollars in cost blowouts, such as Virgil C Summer, which had already expended almost $14bn on the failed project. The Coalition’s nuclear project also draws parallels with the UK’s Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant project, which has experienced a three-year delay and an £8 billion cost overrun. A major factor in this project is the shortage of skilled engineers and steelworkers with no robust strategy to address this workforce gap.

The lack of skilled workforce

The proposed nuclear power plant program, alongside increased activities in defence shipbuilding, critical minerals mining and processing, hydrogen plants and renewable energy infrastructure projects, will exacerbate the existing shortage of welders from 70,000 to nearly 100,000. In fact, of the 67,000 welders identified in the last census, fewer than 5,000 possess the expertise to weld to the highest standards required for nuclear power plants, submarines, and other critical infrastructure. And of those 5,000 welders, approximately one third are nearing retirement, further compounding the issue.

If Australia were to shift its energy policy yet again, we might see a slight decrease in demand for welders assuming we halt the production of wind towers, refrain from extending the grid, and cancel hydrogen and green steel projects. Given that wind and transmission tower production can be significantly automated, let’s optimistically estimate a reduction of 20,000 welders.

However, if we decide to build two nuclear power plants simultaneously while maintaining all existing coal-fired power stations indefinitely, the demand for highly skilled welders will be immense. Welding for nuclear power plants requires expert welders who can handle all positions and processes with the highest accuracy and quality. Those same welders are also essential for maintaining coal-fired power stations, building submarines and frigates, and developing hydrogen and mineral processing plants.

Coming back to Hinkley Point C, Managing Director Stuart Crooks has said that restarting the nuclear construction industry in Britain after a 20-year pause has been hard. Relearning nuclear skills, creating a new supply chain and training a workforce is an immense task. If this has been difficult for the UK, where they had a well-established nuclear industry, how will Australia, which has no nuclear industry, handle the challenge?

Where are these highly skilled and paid tradespeople to come from? If we decide to manufacture the infrastructure required for Australia’s renewables revolution locally, we can do it, just, with some sensible policy settings. But it’s impossible to imagine where we would find the engineers and tradesmen to build one nuclear power station, let alone seven.

We cannot rely on immigration. The global shortfall in welders is evident, with the US experiencing a deficit of 480,000 before its recent manufacturing boom and Japan reporting a shortage of 250,000 welders. The demographic shift away from trades has created a global crisis that Australia is not insulated from.

Additional barriers to nuclear

Even if the Coalition was somehow able to fill the worker shortage, there are additional legal hurdles to overcome. Australia implemented a nuclear ban in 1988, which PM John Howard tried and failed to remove in the run-up to the 2007 election.

If Dutton is hoping for a different outcome in the Federal Election, in the event that the Coalition is unable to form a majority government, they will be relying on independents to support lifting the ban in Parliament, since Labor and the Greens are opposed to such a move. Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales also have a ban on nuclear power; as the Coalition’s planned development includes a reactor in every mainland state, state governments would also need to favour lifting the ban, which seems unlikely under Labor Governments.

Safe and efficient waste removal poses a further challenge. Australia currently has more than 17,600 cubic metres of radioactive waste from the Lucas Heights nuclear medicine factory. This has been sitting in more than 100 locations for decades because state and federal governments have been unable to come to an agreement about how best to dispose of it. Every proposal so far has failed.

Dutton has pointed to the AUKUS deal for nuclear-powered submarines as an indication that future governments will need to find a permanent solution for radioactive waste, regardless of whether they adopt nuclear power. Until that time, he has suggested storing waste on-site until the end of life of the power plant, which is not considered to be the safest, long-term management option by regulator ARPANSA (Australia’s Radiation, Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency).

A need for immediate, decisive action

Despite the claims of the Coalition, the likely result will be much higher electricity bills for consumers, with the price of wholesale power at least tripling to recover the costs of building the nuclear plant. As energy retailers will pass these costs on to consumers, the average household could see an increase of $1,000 a year in their power bill.

The Coalition’s plan to go nuclear will impact the lives of every Australian at a time when costs of living are skyrocketing. It will also place increased pressure on the steel industry and skilled workers. Australia’s energy transition is already struggling, and adding the monumental task of building nuclear power plants without a sufficient workforce is impractical.

We are barely able to meet our current commitments, let alone embark on new nuclear projects. The situation necessitates a multi-faceted approach. We need practical solutions, and we need them now. The federal government must invest in training programs, provide incentives for trades education, and develop a clear strategy to ensure a pipeline of skilled welders and engineers.

Our national energy security and future economic prosperity depend on our ability to build and maintain critical infrastructure. The skilled worker shortage is not just a challenge; it is a crisis that demands fast and sustained action.

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