No ’nuclear renaissance’

Opinion • by Jang Daul – 27 November 2024

Nuclear power has long been a controversial issue mainly due to nuclear accidents, radioactive waste, nuclear proliferation and high costs.

Now, the nuclear debate is centered on the role of nuclear power in the zero-carbon power mix to address the global climate crisis.

In order to determine whether nuclear power is a feasible option that can make an additional contribution to the urgent global carbon reduction, it is necessary to understand the current status of the global nuclear industry based on neither plans nor hopes but facts.

To do so, it’s hard to find a better resource than the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR), written by an interdisciplinary group of independent experts around the world, which analyzes the industry through dozens of indicators.

As John Mecklin, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said, “The report provides authoritative, important information that cannot and should not be ignored, regardless of one’s attitudes about the nuclear industry.”

Therefore, as a citizen of the world’s fifth-largest nuclear power operating country, it is important to look at the key findings in the 513-page WNISR 2024 report.

1. Nuclear capacity growth stagnates

Last year, five reactors (5 gigawatt or GW) started up and five were closed (6 GW). As of July 1 (hereafter mid-2024), 408 reactors were operating in 32 countries. The net operating capacity was 367 GW as of mid-2024 which is almost the same as the 2006 end-of-year record. In other words, there was not much growth over the last 17 years.

2. Nuclear power generation growth stagnates

Global nuclear power plants produced 2,602 terawatt-hour of electricity in 2023 which was a 2.2 percent increase compared to 2022. Yet, it was still less than the peak of 2,660 TWh in 2006. Furthermore, the modest but growing trend over the past decade was mainly due to China’s contribution.

3. The share of nuclear in global electricity generation falls

Nuclear energy’s share of global electricity generation was 9.15 percent in 2023, a slight decrease from the previous year, and it was much lower than the historical peak of 17.5 percent in 1996.

4. Construction shrunk and faces difficult challenges

Globally, 59 reactors — of which 27 are in China — were under construction as of mid-2024, with many facing years of delays and cost overruns. It was roughly a quarter of the historical peak of 234 reactors under construction in 1979.

5. More closures than startups of reactors

Over two decades (2004-23), 102 reactors started operation, and 104 were closed. Out of the 102 startups, 49 of them were in China which did not close any reactors. In other words, there has been a significant net decline of 51 reactors outside China during the two decades.

6. Not many export opportunities, and Russia dominates

Out of the 59 reactors under construction, 37 (63 percent) are built by domestic technology. And out of the remaining 22 reactors built by foreign technology, Russia is building 20 (91 percent) of them.

7. It takes much longer than 10 years to build

The average construction time of the 18 reactors connected to the grid between 2021 and 2023 was 10 years. The construction time here only covers the actual construction (commonly marked by the first concrete being poured to form the foundation of the reactor building) to the connection to the grid. There are lengthy preliminary steps before the actual construction, including siting, radiological environmental impact assessment, public engagement and regulatory safety review for construction license.

8. Aging reactors are shutting down

In the absence of significant new reactor startups over many years, the average age of global reactors has been increasing since 1984 and, as of mid-2024, is 32 years. Around a third of the global reactors have operated for 41 or more years. The average age at closure of the 29 reactors between 2019 and 2023 was around 43 years.

Considering the factual analysis of multiple indicators above, it is reasonable to conclude that the global nuclear industry is grappling with stagnation of further growth, aging of reactors and mounting challenges of new startups. Therefore, it would be quite difficult to even maintain the current contribution of nuclear power in the global zero-carbon electricity generation for the coming decades.

These are the straight facts about the status of the global nuclear industry. Simply, there is no such thing as a ’nuclear renaissance.’

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Jang Daul is a climate and energy expert and advocacy specialist. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect The Korea Times’ editorial stance.