Experts suggest policymakers hoping for a ‘nuclear renaissance’ may be disappointed

Source : Sustainable Views: Experts suggest policymakers hoping for a ‘nuclear renaissance’ may be disappointed https://www.sustainableviews.com/experts-suggest-policymakers-hoping-for-a-nuclear-renaissance-may-be-disappointed-91c4507d

by Florence Jones • 15 May 2025

At a glance

• Policymakers and tech companies are looking to new nuclear power, including small modular reactors, as an important source of clean energy
• The nuclear industry has a long history of not delivering on its promises with huge delays and budget overruns on projects
• With most SMRs not set to be operational until the 2030s, experts suggest nuclear cannot be relied on to meet growing clean energy demands

A number of governments have set their sights on a new nuclear era, with visions of large-scale and small modular reactors providing a clean, constant source of power for the world’s growing energy demands from electrification and digital technologies.

While large nuclear plants are built fully on-site, SMRs can be built as modules in a factory, before being fitted together on location, making construction quicker and cheaper, insist their supporters. SMRs typically have a capacity of around 300 megawatts compared with more than 1 gigawatt for a large reactor.

The UK government has promised a “nuclear renaissance”. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has slashed planning rules to speed up permissions for SMRs, engineering company Rolls-Royce is developing an SMR, which it says will be operational by the 2030s, and two large-scale projects, Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C, are under way.

Across the Atlantic, President Donald Trump’s administration has voiced support for nuclear as a reliable and domestic source of energy. At a major energy security summit in London at the end of April, UK energy secretary Ed Miliband said there was “common ground” with the US on nuclear and the countries intend to collaborate on a nuclear rollout.

Meanwhile, on May 8, Ontario Power Generation in Canada received government approval to start building North America’s first SMR.

Only two SMR projects are operational today, one in China and one in Russia. Both overran their deadline, with Russia’s floating project in the Arctic taking more than 12 years to build, three and a half times the original estimate, and China’s taking 10 rather than the five years planned.

In the EU, the picture is more complex.

France has long been mostly powered by nuclear and uses it to source around 70 per cent of its energy. In 2023, France’s parliament agreed a new plan to keep the share of nuclear in the country’s overall energy mix at over 50 per cent past 2050, reversing a 2018 decision to cut it to 50 per cent by 2035. Belgium’s coalition government is also seeking to reverse previous efforts to phaseout nuclear power.

“We’ve been here before. Ultimately, it just comes down to two issues . . . one is cost, and two is timing”

Michael Hogan, Regulatory Assistance Project

Germany completely phased out nuclear power in 2022 under a 2011 policy, but newly elected Chancellor Friedrich Merz is more open to the technology. Writing with French President Emmanuel Macron in newspaper Le Figaro on May 8, the pair suggest the two countries should “realign” their energy policy based on “technological neutrality”.

In 2022, the EU added nuclear to its green taxonomy as a “transition activity”, prompting debate over whether it should be included in EU renewable energy targets. A French-led nuclear alliance of 14 countries is pushing for greater recognition of nuclear across EU energy policy, which some environmental groups say will delay a fully renewable energy system.

The private sector is also leading the call for new nuclear, especially big tech companies looking to power energy-hungry data centres.

Google has signed a purchase agreement with US company Kairos Power to deploy reactors by 2035. Amazon and Energy Northwest have signed a deal to fund the development of SMRs to be operational “in the early 2030s”. Microsoft has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with US energy company Constellation for nuclear power.

The timeframe for these projects remains unclear as they are “in the early stages of development” and based on technologies not yet operating at commercial scale, Mycle Schneider, energy analyst co-ordinator of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, tells Sustainable Views.

Global nuclear capacity continues to fall

This is not the first time industry and energy policymakers have promised a new era for nuclear power.

“We’ve been here before,” Michael Hogan, senior adviser at global clean energy non-governmental organisation the Regulatory Assistance Project, tells Sustainable Views. “Ultimately, it just comes down to two issues . . . cost and timing.”

Nuclear developments have been plagued by delays and spiralling budgets for decades.

And, despite the recent buzz around nuclear, global capacity additions are on a downward trend.

The 2024 edition of the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report shows in 2023, five nuclear reactors (equalling 5GW of capacity) started up but five were also closed (6GW of capacity). Meanwhile, nuclear electricity production remained below its 2006 peak at a maximum of 2,660 terawatt hours over the year compared with 2,602 TWh in 2023, the year with the most recently available data.

Nuclear power faces other challenges, notably waste management, public acceptability and import dependence, with Russia remaining a major exporter of enriched uranium.

The EU sourced more than 14 per cent of uranium from Russia in 2024. Under its REPowerEU plan to reduce the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy imports, the commission will introduce a legislative proposal on the “gradual phasing out” of Russian uranium next month.

But for Hogan, these additional challenges could be overcome were it not for “timing and cost problems”.

Bringing in private capital

By increasing the number of companies directly investing in nuclear, it “could go from what’s traditionally been utility owned and operated to something that private companies own and operate”, Kirsten Odynski partner at law firm White & Case, tells Sustainable Views. Nuclear could become more “economically lucrative”, she suggests.

But others are less convinced.

Hogan says a majority of the agreements signed between tech companies and nuclear developers are purchase agreements guaranteeing they will take energy from an SMR once it is operational at a set price, rather than a direct investment. This can be “a big help” in providing demand certainty for developers, but whether or not the project will be delivered on time and at that price remains a “very big question”, he says.

The modular factory-built design of SMRs could lower the cost and installation time, says Hogan. But other experts argue they could lose out on economies of scale.

Meanwhile, beyond some vocal exceptions, such as tech companies, other investors are less focused on nuclear energy, data suggests.

In 2023, total investment in non-hydro renewable electricity capacity reached a record $623bn, 27 times the reported global investment decisions for nuclear power plant construction, shows the industry status report. While some nuclear projects may attract small amounts of investment that would otherwise have gone to renewables projects, it is only “at the margins” as renewables are lower cost and more mature technologies, says Hogan.

Too little too late

With 2030 — the year many countries have set interim targets for their net zero goals — fast approaching, some argue the nuclear industry’s clean power promise is coming too late.

In the UK, it is unlikely that nuclear will play a large role in the government’s clean power by this date, says Josh Emden, senior research fellow at UK-based think-tank the Institute for Public Policy Research. The first new nuclear power station, Hinkley Point C, will not be operational until between 2029 and 2031 at the earliest.

Emden says the UK should develop a plan beyond 2050 to keep its nuclear industry and workforce operational, as power plants in Scotland and the north of England are set to close by 2030. Between now and 2030 renewable energy will be the focus, he adds.

Most SMR projects under development are scheduled to begin operating in the early 2030s, which is too late to deliver on rising energy demand, says Hogan. The demand for new nuclear may well “disappear” by the mid-2030s as renewable energy and storage build-out continues at pace and energy efficiency and flexibility improvements lower overall demand, he adds.

Nuclear projects could bring benefits to the grid — especially if nuclear fusion start-ups prove successful in creating nuclear power without fission’s safety risks and waste — but “we can’t sit around and wait”, says Hogan.

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